BACK IN RUSSIA
(BACK IN THE USSR)
One
of the Beatles’ many hits was the 1968 song Back
in the USSR. This post is about Crimea, but I got the inspiration for the
headline from “The Beatles”.
The Beatles Back in the USSR!
Crimea
is not back in the USSR, which passed away in 1991, but she’s definitely back
in Russia. Actually, although many pundits like
to establish analogies between present-day Russia and the former Soviet Union,
it was in the Soviet time that Crimea was arbitrarily taken away from the
Soviet Republic of Russia and given as a present (?) to the Soviet Republic of
Ukraine. It was thus all in the family. And it is in the new Russian era that
Crimea is snatched back by Moscow in the context of a serious family rift.
Today’s Russia points to impressive figures: 83% voter turnout in the
Crimean referendum and a 97% support for reunification with Russia.
The United States and the major European powers point to illegalities and coercion in the referendum and in the change of Ukraine’s borders.
Russia
effectively annexed Crimea: first by establishing effective control on the
ground, then by winning the referendum and, earlier today, formalizing Crimea’s
return to Mother Russia in a ceremony in Moscow.
The
West implemented some lame, symbolic sanctions
targeting some Russian and Ukrainian officials, some of whom for publicly
defending Crimea’s reunification with Russia. So much for freedom of thought
and speech!
In
spite of strong worded declarations and threats and weak sanctions from the
West, this blog has long stated (A Faca e o Queijo na Mão, 03/03/2014 at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/03/a-faca-e-o-queijo-na-mao.html
) that the future of Crimea depended
almost exclusively on Russia’s will and, specifically, on President
Vladimir Putin.
What
were the decisive factors in the Crimea crisis outcome?
1- The powers that be, in this
case, Russia.
2- Ukraine’s overall weakness and
disunity.
3- The power that had the most at
stake. Again, it was Russia. Check Battleground of Eastern
Europe, 06/02/2014 at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/02/battleground-of-eastern-europe.html
4- The will of the vast majority of
the people of Crimea.
5- The swift, determined and
undeterred actions Russia took to reach this outcome.
6- The Western powers’ naiveté (or
wishful thinking) hoping that if they would just yell and threat a lot, the
Russians would leave the Black Sea Peninsula. It was so much so that even
TODAY, there were American and European senior officials saying that Putin
could still back-off in a face-saving way. Hilarious!
Given
these factors, the outcome was predictable: the most powerful and committed
actor takes the prize home.
The
Crimea game is basically over. Let’s see what happens in Ukraine, the Battleground
of Eastern Europe.
POSTS RELACIONADOS:
“DO KOSOVO À CRIMEIA”, 07/03/2014
em
“A FACA E O QUEIJO NA
MÃO”, 03/03/2014 em
“KIEV A FERRO E FOGO”,
21/02/2014 em
“BATTLEGROUND
OF EASTERN EUROPE”, 06/02/2014 em
“SEM FUTURO”, 31/01/2014
em
2 comentários:
A NATO, os EUA, a UE eram anti-soviéticos, como hoje são anti Rússia , porque a Rússia é um obstáculo.
Como diz e muito bem, são risíveis. E o pobre Hollande, transformado em caniche de Obama, como ontem Blair, caniche de Bush.
Não há nada a acrescentar a um "post" perfeito, Caro Senhor Rui Miguel Ribeiro. E jà tinha, muito bem, indicado o caminho previsível nos seus "posts" precedentes. Estamos de acordo !
Muito obrigado Sr. De Freitas! :-)
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