18 março, 2014

Back in Russia (Back in the USSR)


BACK IN RUSSIA

(BACK IN THE USSR)



One of the Beatles’ many hits was the 1968 song Back in the USSR. This post is about Crimea, but I got the inspiration for the headline from “The Beatles”.



The Beatles Back in the USSR!

Crimea is not back in the USSR, which passed away in 1991, but she’s definitely back in Russia. Actually, although many pundits like to establish analogies between present-day Russia and the former Soviet Union, it was in the Soviet time that Crimea was arbitrarily taken away from the Soviet Republic of Russia and given as a present (?) to the Soviet Republic of Ukraine. It was thus all in the family. And it is in the new Russian era that Crimea is snatched back by Moscow in the context of a serious family rift.

Celebrations at Lenin Square in Simferopol, Crimea, after the referendum.

in Agence France-Presse at http://www.afp.com/en/home/

Today’s Russia points to impressive figures: 83% voter turnout in the Crimean referendum and a 97% support for reunification with Russia.

The United States and the major European powers point to illegalities and coercion in the referendum and in the change of Ukraine’s borders.

Russia effectively annexed Crimea: first by establishing effective control on the ground, then by winning the referendum and, earlier today, formalizing Crimea’s return to Mother Russia in a ceremony in Moscow.

The West implemented some lame, symbolic sanctions targeting some Russian and Ukrainian officials, some of whom for publicly defending Crimea’s reunification with Russia. So much for freedom of thought and speech!

In spite of strong worded declarations and threats and weak sanctions from the West, this blog has long stated (A Faca e o Queijo na Mão, 03/03/2014 at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/03/a-faca-e-o-queijo-na-mao.html ) that the future of Crimea depended almost exclusively on Russia’s will and, specifically, on President Vladimir Putin.

What were the decisive factors in the Crimea crisis outcome?


1- The powers that be, in this case, Russia.

2- Ukraine’s overall weakness and disunity.

3- The power that had the most at stake. Again, it was Russia. Check Battleground of Eastern Europe, 06/02/2014 at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/02/battleground-of-eastern-europe.html

4- The will of the vast majority of the people of Crimea.

5- The swift, determined and undeterred actions Russia took to reach this outcome.

6- The Western powers’ naiveté (or wishful thinking) hoping that if they would just yell and threat a lot, the Russians would leave the Black Sea Peninsula. It was so much so that even TODAY, there were American and European senior officials saying that Putin could still back-off in a face-saving way. Hilarious!

Given these factors, the outcome was predictable: the most powerful and committed actor takes the prize home.

The Crimea game is basically over. Let’s see what happens in Ukraine, the Battleground of Eastern Europe.




POSTS RELACIONADOS:

“DO KOSOVO À CRIMEIA”, 07/03/2014 em



“A FACA E O QUEIJO NA MÃO”, 03/03/2014 em



“KIEV A FERRO E FOGO”, 21/02/2014 em



“BATTLEGROUND OF EASTERN EUROPE”, 06/02/2014 em



“SEM FUTURO”, 31/01/2014 em


2 comentários:

Defreitas disse...

A NATO, os EUA, a UE eram anti-soviéticos, como hoje são anti Rússia , porque a Rússia é um obstáculo.
Como diz e muito bem, são risíveis. E o pobre Hollande, transformado em caniche de Obama, como ontem Blair, caniche de Bush.


Não há nada a acrescentar a um "post" perfeito, Caro Senhor Rui Miguel Ribeiro. E jà tinha, muito bem, indicado o caminho previsível nos seus "posts" precedentes. Estamos de acordo !

Rui Miguel Ribeiro disse...

Muito obrigado Sr. De Freitas! :-)