19 Century? 20 Century? 21 Century?

19 CENTURY? 20 CENTURY?

21 CENTURY?

Since the breakout of the Ukrainian crisis, especially after Crimea moved forward and centre on the world stage, we have seen countless references to a dreaded time machine located in Moscow, shoving us back and forth to the 19 Century, the 20 Century and the 21 Century.

This trend started when the former and the present US Secretaries of State declared that Putin’s actions were like Hitler’s in the 1930’s (Hillary Clinton) and  “Putin was acting like 19 Century in the 21 Century” (John Kerry). The former was posturing for the upcoming 2016 presidential campaign; the latter was talking out of his own silliness.

Others soon followed: Durão Barroso, EU chief commissioner, coming back to Earth from outer space, declared he was shell-shocked by this unexpected return to the past. Barack Obama has been struggling with 19 Century and 20 Century analogies, berating Power Politics, the Cold War and assorted dressings and concepts, allegedly from the past.

So, where (when) are we after all?

Well, we are actually on the 21 Century, which is different from previous ones, but it has not transported us to a new dimension. In other words, it is NOT that different, at least not so far, given that we have been through a meager 15% of it.

It is true that since 1945 the world has not experienced the systemic wars that ravaged the first half of the 20 Century. It is also true that after 1991, the relations between the major powers became more benign as the USA asserted herself as the lonely superpower, as Russia declined, as China rose discreetly, as the European great powers integrated and as Japan stagnated.

This translated into more diplomacy and cooperation and less tolerance for wars. However, conflict, rivalry, clashing national interests, inter-peer pressure, threats and, yes, wars, never disappeared. They have always been here.

Power Politics never vanished. It just became more polite and discreet but, more often than not, effective and unpleasant for whoever is on the receiving end of pressure.

Furthermore, people have been oblivious to another fact: there is more world beyond Western Europe and North America. And many regions of that other world continue to be nasty places where guns often speak louder than words, where resorting to the threat to use or the actual use of weapons is a real option rather than an outlandish one.

It is not whimsical the steady (sometimes brisk) rise in military spending and weapons purchases in the Middle East, South Asia, the former Soviet space and East Asia. Rather, it reflects the harsh reality that war is perceived as a real life possibility.

 So, in fact, we live in one of just a few oasis of seemingly solid peace on Earth. However, even people who live in an oasis can see they are surrounded by desert and desert will inevitably interact with the oasis. Meaning that no one is permanently safe or insulated from war or conflict. I have been saying this for years, often meeting with skepticism or derision. However, few predicted that Yugoslavia would go down in flames, or that Russia and Georgia would engage in war. We could say the same about Al-Qaeda’s attacks in the USA, the United Kingdom and Spain, plus the Afghanistan War. Or, for that matter, the rising tension between China and Japan and in the South China Sea.

Those who believe that war is gone, that peace is a given, that power and interest are not the real engines of International Relations are either naïve, living in denial, or they just do not have a clue.

War did not show up in 2014 straight back from the 19 Century or the 20 Century. War was here all the time. It has never left us.

WAR IN THE 19 CENTURY

Japanese soldiers firing on Chinese troops in the First Sino-Japanese War in Korea (1894/1895).

in Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Sino-Japanese_War

WAR IN THE 20 CENTURY

French troops attacking a German position in Champagne in the I World War (1917)

in Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GermanInfantry1914.jpg

WAR IN THE 21 CENTURY

US Army soldiers in a firefight near Al Doura, Baghdad in 2007 during the Iraq War.

in Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War

War in the 19 Century.

War in the 20 Century.

War in the 21 Century.

Weapons & equipment aside, can you really  tell the difference?