BREXIT DAY
1
Theresa May signs the letter
triggering article 50.
Yesterday, Brexit was finally officially kick-started. Now follows two
years of hard-fought, occasionally acrimonious negotiations. It is hard to
predict the outcome other than the obvious United Kingdom exit from the EU.
Going through some analyses, one gets the sense that anything that could
go bad will hurt the UK solo; as if on the other side of the table were an immutable
entity, existing in an impregnable bubble. That is obviously not the case. Even
admitting that the UK is weaker (and more homogeneous and flexible), it is
clear that both sides stand to win or lose significantly depending on things
turning out for the better or for the worse.
Theresa May triggered article 50 with a very conciliatory and friendly
letter, striving to start the negotiations on a cordial basis, even if she also
included a quid pro quo (no trade deal, no security cooperation) which was a
reminder that London also has some trumps up the sleeve.
Nevertheless it will be a rough path and it will require a lot of courage
and determination of the Prime Minister who will be facing some vengeful
federalist zealots abroad and a fair share of whiners at home of the Liberal
leader’s type who thinks that leaving the EU skews the voters’ choice
(seriously?) and who defends the possibility (???) of the UK not leaving the
EU, in spite of the British people’s democratic will to do exactly the opposite.
In the end, as Theresa May said, “there can be no turning back.” One way
or the other, the United Kingdom will leave the EU.
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