30 março, 2017

Brexit Day 1


Theresa May signs the letter triggering article 50.
in BBC News at www.bbc.com/news

Yesterday, Brexit was finally officially kick-started. Now follows two years of hard-fought, occasionally acrimonious negotiations. It is hard to predict the outcome other than the obvious United Kingdom exit from the EU.

Going through some analyses, one gets the sense that anything that could go bad will hurt the UK solo; as if on the other side of the table were an immutable entity, existing in an impregnable bubble. That is obviously not the case. Even admitting that the UK is weaker (and more homogeneous and flexible), it is clear that both sides stand to win or lose significantly depending on things turning out for the better or for the worse.

Theresa May triggered article 50 with a very conciliatory and friendly letter, striving to start the negotiations on a cordial basis, even if she also included a quid pro quo (no trade deal, no security cooperation) which was a reminder that London also has some trumps up the sleeve.

Nevertheless it will be a rough path and it will require a lot of courage and determination of the Prime Minister who will be facing some vengeful federalist zealots abroad and a fair share of whiners at home of the Liberal leader’s type who thinks that leaving the EU skews the voters’ choice (seriously?) and who defends the possibility (???) of the UK not leaving the EU, in spite of the British people’s democratic will to do exactly the opposite.

In the end, as Theresa May said, “there can be no turning back.” One way or the other, the United Kingdom will leave the EU.

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