31 janeiro, 2013

Cameron Turning Tables

CAMERON TURNING TABLES

 
 
United Kingdom’s Prime Minister David Cameron’s with his speech on Europe last week seems to have turned the tables on most if not all of his domestic political opponents.

Let’s check:

Labour: The opposition is in a quandary. Actually, Labour is in a loose-loose situation. If it opposes Cameron’s plan, it will run counter the feelings of most British people who feel they’ve got too enmeshed in the and by the EU. If it goes along with Cameron, it will be reduced to the role of chaperon and unable to effectively oppose the ruling party.


Liberals: If the Liberals were not able to influence the Conservatives stance on this issue in 2013, now that they are a coalition partner, their leverage in 2015 should be close to naught, since it is a statistical improbability that there will be another hung-Parliament. Furthermore, it is hard to oppose a referendum, even if you hate the eventual consequences.


UKIP: Well, the best they could come up with was a question of timing: 2015 is too late. I do not think that the electorate will give much importance to that. Actually, this referendum hangs like a death sentence over the UKIP. If Cameron can present to the electorate a palatable relationship between London and Brussels (or Berlin) and win the vote, half of UKIP’s platform will be null and void….


Conservative backbenchers: This lot is outright happy. And so is David Cameron who guaranteed a fully unified Conservative Party heading for the election.


David Cameron’s speech was a smart and well-timed move that should help him secure a more robust victory in the next election. However, certain ifs must materialize for the plan to be fully successful:


1-   The British economy must improve.

2-   He must reach a decent and substantial arrangement with the EU.

3-   He will have to prevail in the referendum.


If David Cameron can pull this off, he will go down in History. If he does not, he risks going down… the drain.

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