Super Tuesday and the Potomac Primaries

SUPER TUESDAY AND

THE POTOMAC PRIMARIES

I decided to wait a week after Super Tuesday 20 plus primaries and caucus before writing again on the Great Race. In the meantime, Kansas (Rep.), Maine (Dem), Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington voted and yesterday it was the Potomac Primaries (Virginia, Maryland and Washington D.C.).

 

THE REPUBLICANS

Super Tuesday saw a spread of wins among the three major candidates: roughly, McCain won the major states (New York, California, Illinois), Huckabee won the South (Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama) and Romney took the West (Colorado, Utah, Montana).
In spite of this, it led to major conclusions: McCain became the virtual winner with the triple of each of his opponents; Romney, although he was 2nd and won 12 states overall, dropped out of the race for the sake of the Party; Huckabee proved to be dominant in the conservative south and vowed to carry on until McCain reaches the magical number of 1191 delegates that will guarantee the nomination.

The mid-week Kansas primary vindicated Huckabee’s persistence giving him a big victory for McCain, who cannot disguise his difficulties with the Republican conservative electorate. His triple victory on the banks of the Potomac enables him to lick those wounds and prepare himself to wrap up the Republican nomination on 4th March in Texas and Ohio. However, McCain will have to convince the conservative before he can start targeting the moderate independent American electorate, without which he cannot win in November.

John and Cindy McCain in Phoenix, Arizona.
in The New York Times

Here’s the table with the number of delegates guaranteed by each Republican candidate in the states which have already held elections:

 

DELEGATES - STATES

JOHN McCAIN: 820 - 16
MITT ROMNEY (Out): 287 - 11
MIKE HUCKABEE: 217 - 8
RON PAUL: 16 - 0

Data from CNN Election Center 2008.

Available at http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

THE DEMOCRATS

On the Democratic side, after John Edwards’ withdrawal, the race was definitely bipolarised. Super Tuesday brought an avalanche of wins both by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The New York Senator won the most delegates, largely thanks to her victories in California and New York. The Illinois Senator won the most states and kept within striking distance (around 100 delegates) from Clinton. After that mega-vote, the race was at a standoff and totally open.

However, the following week changed that perception. Obama won in Maine, where Clinton had hoped to win, and went on to clinch victory in Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana. There I felt that he had the momentum and would sweep the Potomac primaries as well. And yesterday he won Virginia, Maryland and Washington D.C. and overtook Clinton in the number of delegates. The difference is negligible (47 on my count) but Senator Obama has the momentum, is riding the wave, won 8 consecutive votes, is clearly growing and won a total of 22 states versus Clinton’s 13. On the other hand, Senator Clinton is on the defensive, ceased to be the easy winner and is running behind and accumulating losses. The demotion of her campaign manager is but a sign that things are going bad.

Of course, Texas and Ohio in early March and Pennsylvania in April may change these perceptions, but I think the Obama tide will go on growing and that Clinton will probably win Texas but loose in the two Rust-Belt states.

Barack Obama in Madison, Wisconsin.in The New York Times

Here’s the table with the number of delegates guaranteed by each Democratic candidate in the states which have already held elections:

DELEGATES - STATES

BARACK OBAMA: 1184 - 22

HILLARY CLINTON: 1137 - 13

JOHN EDWARDS (Out): 29 - 0

Data from CNN Election Center 2008.
Available at http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

Prospects: There will be an on-going toe-to-toe battle between Obama and Clinton that is bound to go at least until late April/May. Huckabee will prolong his war of attrition with McCain at least until the Texas primary, the last big conservative redoubt and where I believe he will be terminated.

Hunch:

In November it will be John McCain versus Barack Obama