THE GREAT RACE
THE REPUBLICANS
Max the Elephant, the GOP’s mascot.
After a prolonged pre-campaign that span throughout 2007, the 2008 US Presidential Elections actually started on the 3 January with Iowa and New Hampshire kick starting the long primary season.
So, just a few days before Super-Tuesday, when Republicans will be voting in 21 states and Democrats in 22, here’s a flashback of the two races up to the Florida vote.
The candidates:
· John McCain, 71, Senator from Arizona.
· Mitt Romney, 60, Massachusetts Governor.
· Rudolph Giuliani, 63, former New York Mayor.
· Mike Huckabee, 52, Arkansas Governor.
· Fred Thompson, 65, former Senator from Tennessee.
· Ron Paul, 72, member of the House of Representatives from Texas.
The race opens with an upset: Mike Huckabee, coming out of nowhere, wins the Republican caucuses in Iowa. Romney comes in second.
A few days later, John McCain stages an impressive comeback winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney makes a second second place and Giuliani slips out of public sight, runs out of votes and seems to be sinking.
Mitt Romney wins in Michigan (important), and Nevada and Wyoming (nobody else seemed to care). The nomination is wide open.
Third episode: South Carolina. The race turns ugly between Huckabee and McCain. For the former it’s a unique chance of scoring a second victory and getting back on the race; for the latter, it is about shoring up front runner status and doing away with the 2000 ghosts (he lost the state to George W. Bush). In the end, McCain wins, Huckabee is 2nd and Romney 3rd. Thompson is 4th as withdraws, becoming the race’s first significant casualty.
Florida is the 4th largest state in the Union and it is the place Giuliani chose for his final stand for the nomination, a high stakes make or break gamble. Finishing only 3rd with 15%, the 2008 race ends for Giuliani before it actually started; it was a tragic and premature political death of the candidate who was the front-runner for much of 2007. Huckabee survives but the race is now for two: McCain who scored an important victory (36%) and Mitt Romney who finished 2nd with 31%.
Prospects: the fact that Huckabee remains on the race will hurt Romney more than McCain. Giuliani endorsed McCain and that should be a plus on Super-Tuesday, especially in New York and New Jersey.
Hunch: Senator McCain will emerge from Super-Tuesday and the Republican Party nominee.
Present Delegate distribution (195 elected out of a total of 2380):
1- John McCain 95
2- Mitt Romney 67
3- Mike Huckabee 26
4- Ron Paul 6
5- Rudy Giuliani 1
My personal favourite: Senator John McCain.
So, just a few days before Super-Tuesday, when Republicans will be voting in 21 states and Democrats in 22, here’s a flashback of the two races up to the Florida vote.
The candidates:
· John McCain, 71, Senator from Arizona.
· Mitt Romney, 60, Massachusetts Governor.
· Rudolph Giuliani, 63, former New York Mayor.
· Mike Huckabee, 52, Arkansas Governor.
· Fred Thompson, 65, former Senator from Tennessee.
· Ron Paul, 72, member of the House of Representatives from Texas.
The race opens with an upset: Mike Huckabee, coming out of nowhere, wins the Republican caucuses in Iowa. Romney comes in second.
A few days later, John McCain stages an impressive comeback winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney makes a second second place and Giuliani slips out of public sight, runs out of votes and seems to be sinking.
Mitt Romney wins in Michigan (important), and Nevada and Wyoming (nobody else seemed to care). The nomination is wide open.
Third episode: South Carolina. The race turns ugly between Huckabee and McCain. For the former it’s a unique chance of scoring a second victory and getting back on the race; for the latter, it is about shoring up front runner status and doing away with the 2000 ghosts (he lost the state to George W. Bush). In the end, McCain wins, Huckabee is 2nd and Romney 3rd. Thompson is 4th as withdraws, becoming the race’s first significant casualty.
Florida is the 4th largest state in the Union and it is the place Giuliani chose for his final stand for the nomination, a high stakes make or break gamble. Finishing only 3rd with 15%, the 2008 race ends for Giuliani before it actually started; it was a tragic and premature political death of the candidate who was the front-runner for much of 2007. Huckabee survives but the race is now for two: McCain who scored an important victory (36%) and Mitt Romney who finished 2nd with 31%.
Prospects: the fact that Huckabee remains on the race will hurt Romney more than McCain. Giuliani endorsed McCain and that should be a plus on Super-Tuesday, especially in New York and New Jersey.
Hunch: Senator McCain will emerge from Super-Tuesday and the Republican Party nominee.
Present Delegate distribution (195 elected out of a total of 2380):
1- John McCain 95
2- Mitt Romney 67
3- Mike Huckabee 26
4- Ron Paul 6
5- Rudy Giuliani 1
My personal favourite: Senator John McCain.
John McCain after winning the New Hampshire primary. in The Economist
7 comentários:
John McCain ganhou na Florida ; é um facto.Concurrente sério para a Casa Branca, sem duvida .
Se ele ganhar no dia 5 de Fevereiro estará em posição de ganhar a investidura do Partido Republicano.
Este filho e neto de Almirantes da Navy, antigo prisioneiro de guerra no Vietname, durante 5 anos, é um herói nacional.
Embora Republicano e New Conservador opôs-se a G.Bush sobre a questão das torturas infligidas na prisão de Guantanamo a prisioneiros detidos sem processo, talvez porque experimentou na sua própria carne o que isso quer dizer.
Adepto de medidas proteccionistas em matéria de segurança nacional e defendendo ideias belicosas contra o mundo do Islão, é considerado como muito experiente neste género de problemas. Espero que aos 72 anos ( o mais idoso – se eleito- Presidente Americano) não irá tornar a situação mais grave que o que ela é hoje, lançando o mundo numa guerra de civilizações.
Uma coisa é certa: a guerra do Iraque continuará. Com o seu custo alucinante em vidas e dinheiro.
E os Americanos continuarão a comprar brinquedos na Wall Mart, chineses, claro está, alimentando assim o tesouro Chinês em dollars, com os quais estes vão continuar a comprar pedaços de bancos e empresas americanas, verdadeiras fatias da economia dos USA.
Mas como estes têm necessidade dos fundos soberanos dos países árabes e dos comunistas chineses para sobreviver e evitar a falência das Merryl Linch, Morgan, City Corp e outros, será interessante de ver como é que ele vai re-orientar a política económica para evitar a recessão. Wait and see!Mas espero que o elefante nao vai criar estragos na casa de porcelana!
É também o meu candidato favorito.
É de todos os candidatos o que pode devolver ao Partido Reublicano o prestígio que tem vindo a perder.
Além do mais,tem um sentido de humor excepcional.
Quanto aos candidatos democratas que ainda correm não gosto de nenhum. O único que me merecia algum respeiro já desistiu.
Cumprimentos Maria
É também o meu candidato favorito.
É de todos os candidatos o que pode devolver ao Partido Reublicano o prestígio que tem vindo a perder.
Além do mais,tem um sentido de humor excepcional.
Quanto aos candidatos democratas que ainda correm não gosto de nenhum. O único que me merecia algum respeiro já desistiu.
Cumprimentos Maria
Sr. Freitas Pereira:
As posições de John McCain em política externa e de segurança e defesa, são os principais factores que me fazem "apoiá-lo".
A economia não é o seu forte (aí reconheço que Mitt Romney estará melhor equipado), mas espero que tenha o bom senso de se rodear das pessoas certas. Talvez um "ticket" McCain/Romney fosse uma boa solução!
Maria:
Concordo. McCain tem a independência e o desassombro para recuperar a imagem do GOP.
Em relação aos Democratas, a minha opinião pode ser lida no post seguinte.... Mas é a mesma.
Sandra Patrícia:
Como vês, continuo a apoiar os Republicanos e, desta vez, o Senador John McCain!
Eu preferia o Mitt Romney...
Cristina
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