IT’S THE END OF THE
MIDDLE
EAST AS WE KNOW IT
The rise of the Kurds power and
their dream of an independent Kurdistan is one of the driving forces in the
crumbling Middle East borders.
Is the Middle East as we know it doomed? This Middle East is the
by-product of the two World Wars. During and after WWI the fundamentals of
today’s Middle East political map were drawn and defined, mostly via the 1916
Sykes-Picot Agreement (check “Sykes-Picot”
at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/09/sykes-picot.html) between the United Kingdom and
France, who also assumed political control over a substantial part of the
region through the League of Nations mandate system.
The pre and post WWII period saw the sedimentation of these
protectorates into independent states, the creation of Israel and the eventual
incorporation of most of these states into the sphere of influence either of
the United States or the Soviet Union.
Nowadays,
the ripping apart of Syria, Iraq and Yemen (not to mention Libya), the
emergence of powerful non-state actors with their own agendas, the rise of the
Kurds in Iraq, Syria and Turkey, the permanently precarious balance of groups
and sects in Lebanon who has just failed to elect a new president for the 32nd
time (!!!), Iran´s nuclear programme, the growing Sunni-Shiite hostility, the
Saudi-Iranian struggle for influence and predominance, have all contributed to
seriously question yesteryear’s Middle East.
The Islamic State has contributed
heavily to the unravelling of Syria and Iraq, but it is far from being the only
agent of change.
In previous posts RIP Syria (http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/11/rip-syria.html ) and RIP Iraq (http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/11/rip-iraq.html ) it was argued and shown that these countries’ viability has expired
and they are hardly deserving of the status. It is clear that Syria and Iraq
(plus Yemen and Libya) cannot stand on their own and perform the basic tasks,
duties and services expected from statehood.
So, the only thing that keeps them going is inertia and foreign support.
The interests and, mostly, the fears and the horror to border changes, is what
drives the likes of Iran, Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia or Turkey.
However, these countries uncoordinated and frequently plainly antagonistic
efforts will probably achieve no more than to keep Baghdad and Damascus
breathing but linked to a life-support machine in an intensive care unit. And
no one keeps someone indefinitely linked to the machine.
So, instead of keeping the Syrian and
Iraqi patients alive through excruciating pain, maybe it is time to let go.
This may well be the end of the Middle East as we know it!
My thanks to R.E.M. whose song “It’s the End of the World as We Know It”
inspired the title of this post. Besides listening to the tune, I recommend the
readers to pay attention to the lyrics.
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