Reality Check

REALITY CHECK

Let us try to face reality concerning Ukraine. Here’s a reality check:

Ukraine and the two Eastern-most breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

in STRATFOR at www.stratfor.com

REALITY 1

Ukraine is a deeply divided country, torn by cultural, linguistic, geographical, historical and ethnic differences. And yes, by different allegiances. CHECK.

 

REALITY 2

Ukraine sits at a geopolitical fault line, making it a potential target for pushing & shoving by major powers. It is no accident that her territory or parts of it have belonged to Russia, Sweden, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Germany and the Ottoman Empire. CHECK.

 

REALITY 3

Ukraine is an ugly mess. Her former President has been deposed. Her President and the government were installed through a coup d´état. She lost Crimea to Russia. She threw herself in the arms of the IMF. She’s got the Russians messing with her. She’s got the Westerners promising what they cannot or will not deliver. She is on the risk of falling apart.  And she is broke. Ukraine is, once more, in someone else’s hands. CHECK.

 

REALITY 4

Russia regards Ukraine as a vital national interest for historic, religious, geostrategic and cultural reasons and so is willing to go the extra mile to safeguard her interests there. CHECK.

 

REALITY 5

The West has interests in Ukraine, but they are not vital ones. Consequently, it is reluctant to take harsh measures that could evolve towards excessive involvement and risks. Thus the meager sanctions.

CHECK.

REALITY 6

France. For France the two Mistral warships, at US$ 1.2 billion a piece are just too precious a deal to forfeit in times of economic hardship, so she is selling them to Russia come what may. CHECK.

REALITY 7

United Kingdom. The UK prizes Russian money in the City stock market and in London’s real estate market. The whole Ukrainian affair is most unfortunate, but business must go on. CHECK.

REALITY 8

Germany. Germany needs Russian oil & gas and would very much like to keep her vast industrial investments in Russia. So she goes soft and slow on sanctions. CHECK.

REALITY 9

United States. Even the US is not too eager to escalate sanctions on Russia, well aware of the potential economic and security consequences. CHECK.

REALITY 10

Ukraine is important to Russia and is on Russia’s backyard. Meaning Russia finds it easy to meddle and to press and to amass 40.000 troops just over the border.

The Ukraine is only so important to the West and it is relatively far. No one is going to send troops, warships or aircraft to rescue Ukraine, even if the Russians roll their tanks all the way to Kiev, Odessa, or Lvov, which is very unlikely.

So, the most probable outcome is that there will be no major showdown over Ukraine. A more serious conflict is far from impossible, but the Russians will probably continue to act under the radar, and the West is unlikely to take a tough stance. CHECK.

REALITY 11

So, everything will work out reasonably well in Ukraine? Well, probably yes. Except if you are a Ukrainian, of course. CHECK.

FINAL REALITY

One may not like what is going on, but this is the reality of Power Politics or, putting it more mildly, Real Politik. Countries act according to their interests within the limits of their power. The latter being limited, even for great powers, they have to assess the pros and cons in each situation. That is why nobody budged in August 2008 on the Russo-Georgian War. And that is why nobody will go too far over Ukraine despite her much bigger importance CHECK.