23 julho, 2015

Pax Germanica

PAX GERMANICA


The flag of the IV Reich?
Flag adaptation by Afonso Duarte  


This blog has long considered that Germany has increasingly been asserting her authority over much of Europe, especially over the countries that fatefully adopted the euro.

The saga of the Greek crisis has demonstrated that the Pax Germanica has descended upon the continent and it is firmly established from Lisbon to Riga and from Brussels to Athens.

Germany has been the greatest beneficiary of the euro and is determined to defend her interests with an iron hand if need be. There is nothing inherently wrong with that: every government is supposed to defend and pursue its country's interests.

What is out of sync is Germany's imperial posture, in a remarkable contradiction with both the refrained attitude that is supposed to be that of post-War Germany and the egalitarian and cooperative characteristics that Brussels' propaganda strives to make us believe to be the EU's hallmark.

The submissions of Portugal, Spain and Ireland, followed by the total capitulation of Cyprus and Greece, show that Berlin is hell-bent on ruling the eurozone, if not the EU altogether, on its own terms.

Even more depressing than the renaissance of German imperialism, is the submission and surrender of most of the other 18 members, not only those who are virtually governed from Berlin, but also those who sheepishly follow the commands of Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Schauble, such as Italy and France.

Not wanting to establish a direct connection, but it may be useful to remember that the German III Reich scored her first victories and conquests having to wage little or no fight: Austria, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and even France and Norway.

There is yet another similarity: in the 1930's and 1940's there was no shortage of "Quislings", traitors who collaborated with the Nazis for their personal benefit, the misery of their home countries and the death of many of their countrymen. Likewise, early 21 Century Europe displays its own army of Quislings, the likes of Monti, Samaras, Coelho, Rajoy, Papademos and Tsipras, the latest turncoat.

Supported by their stooges, the Germans go around bullying, imposing, threatening, showing their hubris and the contempt they feel for other countries' sovereignty and democratic process. I would just recall the declarations of Mr. Martin Schulz, the German Social-Democrat (???) who is the President of the European Parliament (???) who urged the Greeks to vote "Yes" in their referendum  and the replacement of the democratically elected government by a technocratic one with whom they (the Germans) could do business with, i.e., a subservient and non-accountable government like Monti's in Italy and Papademos' in Greece.

Not wanting to overuse II World War analogies, it looks like only in the English Channel and/or in the Russian Winter, can Germany now be stopped.

For the foreseeable future, we seem to be condemned to live under a Pax Germanica which, like its Roman predecessor, is very much German(ic) and not so pacific.




14 julho, 2015

Gary Lineker, Germany and Greece

GARY LINEKER, GERMANY AND GREECE


The Winged Victory of Samothrace is 2200 years old. Today, however, the spoils go for the Gothic Barbarians.
Cartoon by Tom Toles in “The Washington Post” at www.washingtonpost.com


Gary Lineker, one of the most outstanding strikers in English football’s history once quipped: Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.

 
One could say almost the same about the European Union. There are 19 states playing ball in the euro group, for many hours, and in the end Germany always prevails.

 

Gary Lineker, scoring on the pitch for England and the author of the famous maxim off-the pitch.

 
Just over a week ago I wrote at Tempos Interessantes (“OXI” at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/07/oxi.html) that there were two courses of action that Germany could take reacting to Greece’s referendum; predictably, the first one prevailed:  A vengeful stand. Infuriated by the Greek voters’ defiance, Berlin may choose to punish their daring by keeping the Troika’s terms unchanged.

 
Actually, it was even more vengeful than that, because the terms were changed, becoming even harsher and more punitive.

 
There are two conclusions to be drawn from this final (for the time being) episode of the Greek drama:

 
1- Germany is ever more coercive and violent in asserting her hegemony in Europe.

 
2- Alexis Tsipras behaved like a modern-day Greek Quisling. Blatantly betraying the will of the Greek people a few days after the resounding OXI in the referendum he himself had called and in which he campaigned for the rejection of the German Diktat, is one of the most treacherous and anti-democratic political actions in 21 Century Europe.

 

In light of these events it seems to have become clear:

 
* The reason why Yannis Varoufakis left the government.

 
* That Tsipras enlarged the cohort of European politicians beholden to the German agenda.

 
* That Germany is ever more powerful and ever more unpopular.

 
* And that Europe is becoming ever less democratic.

 
Nasty and Interesting Times in Europe these days.

 


POSTS RELACIONADOS:

 
“OXI” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/07/oxi.html

 
“GREEK Q&A” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/07/greek-q.html

 
“ERROS DA GRÉCIA” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/05/erros-da-grecia.html

 
“ESTRANGULANDO A GRÉCIA” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/05/estrangulando-grecia.html

 
“PEDRADA NO CHARCO” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/01/pedrada-no-charco.html

 
“DEIXAI A ESPERANÇA, VÓS QUE ENTRAIS” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/01/deixai-toda-esperanca-vos-que-entrais.html

 
“EUROTRAGÉDIA” em

06 julho, 2015

OXI

OXI

Greece on the edge…

 
As I had expected, the Greeks voted OXI! NO. However, the massive victory (61%) surpassed my best expectations.

 
Regardless of personal beliefs, it was a remarkable exercise in Democracy, up to Greece’s historical credentials on the issue.

 
First, because the Greeks asserted their free will in excruciatingly hard circumstances, including strict capital controls.

 
Second, because they did so defying the will of great powers and international financial institutions.

 
Third, because they resisted the blatant and unforgivable pressure and blackmail from foreigners such as Schulz, Juncker, Schauble, Dijsselbloem and Merkel. Besides being undignified and illegitimate, these bullying tactics are incredibly stupid because they are most likely to backfire.

 
Now what?

 
Well, it is anybody’s guess. Although Varoufakis’ resignation is not a good omen*, Alexis Tsipras has a stronger hand to play. He has got renewed legitimacy – on top of the electoral legitimacy, he has a specific mandate to make a strong stand in Brussels. Concurrently, the Troika’s hopes of an imminent collapse of the Syriza government have vanished for the foreseeable future.

 
So, much will depend on the Germany’s-Troika’s stance. Tonight, the leaders of Germany and France are meeting in Paris to decide what the Eurozone will do going forward. There are two fundamental options:

 
1- A vengeful stand. Infuriated by the Greek voters’ defiance, Berlin may choose to punish their daring by keeping the Troika’s terms unchanged. This would probably force Athens to default and resuscitate the Drachma, but it would hurt Germany’s image even further. It would also lead to a period of uncertainty and instability in the Eurozone.

 
2- After the referendum’s cold shower, a more constructive attitude. This would entail addressing some of Athens’ main aspirations in a way that would give the Greek economy a decent chance to recover and the Greek government the possibility of fulfilling the gist of its democratic commitments to the Greek people.

 
The first reactions are mixed but are not promising. France and Italy signalled some flexibility but they do not count so much nowadays as they are seemingly incapable of standing up to Germany from whom one has heard no positive messages.

 
I am mildly pessimistic, because the Germany/Troika approach to this kind of negotiations has consistently been to press and bully their targets into submission (check “Erros da Grécia” at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/05/erros-da-grecia.html). Enabling Greece to get away with a fair and reasonable deal, could open a breach in the wall to be explored by others.

 
Then, we still have to factor in the zealot followers of Germany in Portugal and Spain, whose ruling parties are clearly more interested in their electoral prospects than in the well-being of the Portuguese and the Spanish people.

 
It will still take the Greeks a lot of courage and resilience to resist and overcome the approaching onslaught. Never showing signs of relenting may be the key to success.

 

 
* Shedding Yanis Varoufakis because he is not well liked by his counterparts is a gross mistake. The other countries have to deal with whoever represents Greece. The Greeks certainly do not like the despicable Wolfgang Schauble and that certainly will not lead Mrs. Merkel to dismiss him. Lack of resolve is the last thing Mr. Tsipras can afford to show to his opponents.

 

P.S. When this post had already been written, I learned that the ECB kept the freeze on the emergency liquidity assistance to the Greek banks. This means that the Greek banks will run out of cash sometime in the next few days, unless the Bank of Greece overrules the ECB’s decision. So, the strategy seems to be to keep on squeezing the Greeks.

 
 

POSTS RELACIONADOS:

 
“GREEK Q&A” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/07/greek-q.html

 
“ERROS DA GRÉCIA” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/05/erros-da-grecia.html

 
“ESTRANGULANDO A GRÉCIA” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/05/estrangulando-grecia.html

 
“PEDRADA NO CHARCO” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/01/pedrada-no-charco.html


“DEIXAI A ESPERANÇA, VÓS QUE ENTRAIS” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/01/deixai-toda-esperanca-vos-que-entrais.html

 
“EUROTRAGÉDIA” em
 http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/06/euro-tragedia.html

04 julho, 2015

Greek Q&A

GREEK Q&A

 

Plato, Socrates, Greece’s flag and a bleak future.

 
Let’s do some fact checking on Greece on top of her crucial referendum.

 
Q1: Does Greece have a mismanaged, inefficient economy plagued by corruption?

A1: Yes, she does.

 
Q2: Have the Greeks borrowed beyond their means, thus paving the way to get into serious trouble?

A2: Yes, they have.

 
Q3: Have they found in international finance willing lenders, namely German and French banks?

A3: Yes, they have.

 
Q4: Were these loans largely used to purchase foreign goods, mostly German, thus serving as a way to support German exports?

A1: Yes, they were.

 
Q5: Were the two Troika bailouts mostly used to rescue Greece and prop up her economy.

A5: No, they were not.

 
Q6: What was the main purpose then?

A6: It was to repay the debts to the (mostly) German and French banks.

 
Q7: So, was it first and foremost, a bank bailout?

A7: Yes, it was.

 
Q8: Did the bailouts also rescue the Greek economy?

A8: No, they did not. Actually, Greece’s GDP has shrunk a staggering 25% since 2010.

 
Q9: Did the bailouts contain and reduce Greece’s sovereign debt rate?

A9: No, they did not. Actually, Greece’s debt climbed from 120% of GDP to 180%, and counting.

 
Q10: Did the bailouts improve the prospects of the ordinary Greek?

A10: No, they did not. Actually, the Greeks suffered salary and pension cuts of up to 25%.

 
Q11: Did the Troika intervention do something to contain the social crisis in Greece?

A11: No, it did not. Actually, it has significantly worsened it, with unemployment at 26%, youth unemployment at over 50% and widespread poverty, destitution and even hunger.

 
Q12: Have the Troika and Germany changed their approach given the state Greece has fallen into?

A12: No, they did not. Five years after of hardship and a bleak future, the recipe is pretty much the same: austerity, more loans, more debt, more taxes, more cuts in salaries and pensions and sparing the large companies from the national pain.

 
Q13: Is there any hope it might work?

A13: No, there is not. Greece will get nowhere without a functioning economy. The prescription emanating from Frankfurt, Brussels, Berlin and Washington will continue to decimate the Greeks.

 
Q14: Why do they insist on it?

A14: Hubris and dogma. Germany has imposed her economic dogmas on the continent and she is not about to back down. The way the Eurozone has been conceived guarantees a large market for the German export machine; if Berlin relinquishes control over it, the Germans will have a lot to lose.

 
Q15: Should the Greeks vote “No” in the referendum?

A15: Yes, I think they should. However, there is a lot at stake and I am in no position to say what people should do. What I know is that there will be even more hardship for the Greeks either way. Given a choice between poverty with oppression and poverty with dignity, I would go for the latter.

 


 

 

POSTS RELACIONADOS:

 
“ERROS DA GRÉCIA” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/05/erros-da-grecia.html

 
“ESTRANGULANDO A GRÉCIA” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/05/estrangulando-grecia.html

 
“PEDRADA NO CHARCO” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/01/pedrada-no-charco.html

 
“DEIXAI A ESPERANÇA, VÓS QUE ENTRAIS” em
http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2015/01/deixai-toda-esperanca-vos-que-entrais.html

 
“EUROTRAGÉDIA” em
 http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/06/euro-tragedia.html