MAN OF THE YEAR 2017:
KIM JONG UN
KIM JONG UN,
TEMPOS INTERESSANTES’ MAN OF THE
YEAR 2017
Tempos
Interessantes’ Man of the Year 2017 is KIM
JONG UN!
The man rattled the world all
year round. He dared the United States, faced up to China, scoffed at South
Korea, ignored Japan and showed utter contempt for the United Nations,
especially the UN Security Council Resolutions. He resisted sanctions, military
exercises, military threats, provocations, isolation, diplomatic forays and
overtures, rants, pleas and ever more sanctions.
And he went on testing nuclear
weapons. And he went on testing ballistic missiles. And he tested a
thermonuclear device. And he wrapped up the year testing an ICBM apparently
capable of striking New York and Washington D.C.
He relishes it and he boasts of
it. He is Kim Jong Un, Tempos Interessantes’ Man of the Year 2017.
A man who leads a small, poor,
isolated and widely despised and/or hated nation, but nevertheless manages to
challenge the powers-that-be and carry on with his plans, is certainly
deserving of a nomination for a person who was successful and influential in
the current year.
The secret for Kim’s success (here measured against his
objectives) lies on his determination,
shrewdness and ruthlessness, as well as, on his opponents’ mismanagement and
misperception of North Korea.
From 2006 to 2017, the
relentless sequence of increasingly powerful nuclear tests.
in “STRATFOR”
at https://worldview.stratfor.com/
Starting with the latter, the
grossest evaluation was considering Kim a raven lunatic, a maniac bent on
random destruction, a loose-cannon with no real perception of reality that was
racing towards self-destruction. In the words of US Senator John McCain, he is
“a crazy fat kid”. Kim Jong Un, as Tempos Interessantes has alerted
over the years, is none of it, as the events have been proving.
Then, there was this long held
belief that North Korea wanted nuclear weapons to unleash destruction over South
Korea, or, at least, blackmail her into submission (unification under the aegis
of Pyongyang). This is outright silly, but there are still people standing by
it.
Then, there was, there is and
there will be the conviction that North Korea will eventually buckle down under
the pressure of sanctions. This is like trying something that fails repeatedly
and still thinking you are right. Praise to those who still can devise new (and
useless) sanctions.
There is also the twin faith in
US military pressure and Chinese political and economic influence to make the
DPRK backtrack. It has been 11 years since the first nuclear test and… just keep
the faith.
Last but not least, there is the
surrealistic demand that North Korea dismantles her nuclear programme, one of
the best examples of a non-starter. A country,
a regime, a leader, commit themselves to achieve a nuclear power status
against all odds, come hell or high water, and then, when the goal is well
within reach, if not attained yet, they would just throw away their prize, what
they regard as their life insurance? Good luck with that.
North Korea’s missile launches
from 1984 to September 2017 under the three Kims: Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and
Kim Jong Un. Only in 2017 there were 20 missile tests.
in ”MISSILE
THREAT” at https://missilethreat.csis.org/
Going back to the former, Kim
Jong Un, following the steps of his forebears, has skilfully managed the
interactions with the great powers, drawing on their fears, prejudices,
interests and objectives to get the most out of each, or to sow discord between
them.
Accordingly, he conditioned
China’s punishments of North Korea because of Beijing’s fear that, if the
regime collapsed and the country unravelled, China would be flooded with
refugees, the Korean Peninsula would plunge into instability or chaos, the DPRK
could be absorbed by South Korea and there would be American troops just across
the Yalu river from China.
Kim’s seemingly rash and
aggressive posture terrified South Korea, fearful that, if hard pressed, the
North would unleash hellish artillery and rocket fire over Seoul. Besides, even
without an attack, the prospect of a North Korean collapse gives the shivers to
the South Korean government.
The Americans mostly feared a
North Korean ICBM capable of striking the continental United States, but they
also got entangled in East Asia complex of interests, perceptions and fears. On
top of it, their fear is becoming real.
So, playing the lunatic role,
Kim managed to deter more aggressive measures from his antagonists who reasoned
that “the man is crazy, so he is bound to do crazy things.” Well, it turns out
he is not. Of course, being the ruthless leader of a totalitarian state helps.
There is no opposition, no protests, no accountability; the hardship that most
people suffer just has to be submissively endured.
Moreover, despite being young
and supposedly inexperienced, Kim could read the writing on the wall. Like
Bashar Al Assad in Syria, he took due notice of the fate of Saddam Hussein in
Iraq and Muammar Kadhafi in Libya. And both realised that resisting and fighting
back (Assad), or acquiring the ultimate deterrence (Kim) could shield them from
American regime change adventures and from US sponsored personal termination.
From the moment the regime
decides that nuclear deterrent is vital to its survival, the obvious outcome is
that it will do everything necessary to achieve it. This is the key to
understand the reason why this poor country has engaged in such a costly
endeavour, why Kim does not slow down and much less give up, why sanctions do
not work and also why North Korea will not use the nukes unless she perceives
an existential threat.
The nuclear weapons North Korea
has been developing and amassing are not conceived to start a war. They are
North Korea’s deterrence against her enemies, or prevention against a perceived
major threat. Period. The bottom line
is, if one leaves North Korea in peace, she will not use her nukes.
Going forward, North Korea has
virtually achieved her nuclear programme’s main goals. There is certainly still
room for improvement (there are doubts about the performance of the re-entry
vehicle), but the fundamental features, a thermonuclear device and an ICBM,
have been achieved. Against all odds,
the major powers were defeated and they will have to put up with North Korea as
the 9th nuclear power on earth.
Previous “Man of the
Year Posts:
MAN OF THE YEAR 2016” em
“MAN OF THE YEAR 2015” em
“MAN OF THE YEAR 2014” em
“MAN OF THE YEAR 2013”
em
“(WO)MAN OF THE YEAR 2012”
em
“MAN OF THE YEAR 2011” em
