RIP IRAQ
“RIP IRAQ”
Desenho original de Afonso Duarte
Like her Syrian neighbour, Iraq has been unravelling. The main
differences are that this has been happening in Iraq for more time and the
fighting has been less widespread and not as deadly as in Syria.
In Iraq, the main sectarian/ethnic distinctions are three-fold: Shiites,
Sunnis and Kurds. The former constitute the majority group (around 60% of the
population) and govern Iraq. However, they are split between the central
government headed by Prime-Minister Haider Al-Abadi and a score of powerful
Shiite militias with considerable manpower and military capabilities and whose
allegiances sway between Baghdad and Tehran, but they are mostly armed, financed
and even directed by Iran, specifically by the IRGC’s Quds Force.
The Sunnis, by and large, feel (and actually are) disenfranchised by the
Shiite powers that be. This reality is a consequence of the fall of Saddam
Hussein’s regime, but was severely deepened after the 2011 departure of the US
troops from Iraq and the increasingly sectarian policies of former
Prime-Minister Nouri Al-Maliki until the Summer of 2014.
The Islamic State (IS) has been the main vehicle of Sunni revolt against
the statu quo. The string of stunning military victories by the IS, culminating
in the June 2014 conquest of Mosul and the subsequent proclamation of the
Islamic Caliphate, were the strongest drivers of the popularity and support the
IS garnered in Iraq, Syria, the Middle East and beyond.
In this period, the Islamic State has managed to carve a proto-state out
of most of Western Iraq and Eastern Syria (check the 13th June 2014
post “Estado
Islâmico do Iraque Ocidental e Síria Oriental”
- Islamic State of Western Iraq and
Eastern Syria at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/06/estado-islamico-do-iraque-ocidental-e.html ) and she has proved difficult to dislodge in spite of the erosion the war
has caused on her.
However, the anti-IS offensive
has mostly been spearheaded by the US Air Force, the Shiite militias and the
Kurdish Peshmerga, in short, a coalition of anti-Iraqi Sunni forces: USA, Iran
and Kurds. It is quite reasonable to assume that, when and if the Islamic State
is militarily beaten, Iraq’s Sunnis will not come out in droves to celebrate
and much less to greet the liberators.
Most likely, unless there are great political changes in Baghdad (which is
unlikely), Sunni unrest will endure and
the IS will morph into some other entity which will pick up the fight in a few
years-time.
The Islamic State and the
Kurdistan Regional Government: mutual foes and both opponents of Baghdad.
Finally, the Kurds run their own proto-state, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). In spite of being an authoritarian, corrupt, bankrupt and
nepotistic entity, it has enjoyed the favours of the Western powers, namely
the UK and the US and that of Turkey as well. The most outstanding example of
the West’s leniency is London’s and Washington’s support for Masoud Barzani’s
indefinite permanence as president of the KRG fully two years after the end of
his term.
Besides, the KRG has been actively asserting its claim to independence
and sovereignty, exporting oil through Turkey circumventing the Iraqi state and
occupying the city of Kirkuk and the surrounding oil fields. One can say that,
in a twisted way, the KRG has benefited from the Islamic State surge and
expansion.
Even when the IS emergency eventually fades away, it is clear that the
KRG will continue to pursue full independence and it will not easily and
willingly relinquish the prerogatives an territories it has already
appropriated for itself.
To
top it all, the Iraqi government is weak, divided and ineffective, unable to
face and defeat the Islamic State, or to bring the KRG back under control, or
even to rein in on the Iranian-backed militias, on whose fighting power it
ultimately depends on.
So, the ingredients for state failure
are all there:
*
Religious and ethnic hatred.
* Government’s impotence to
control and protect much of Iraq’s territory and population.
* Government’s impotence to
effectively fight and subdue or destroy the rebellious entities of IS and KRG.
* Government’s dependence on
militias largely dependent on and answering to Iran.
* Government’s dependency on
foreign powers (Iran and the US) to survive the
Islamic State’s assault.
This is a recipe for disaster, for the
implosion and partition of a country that effectively does not function as such
anymore.
Like
in Syria, Rest in Peace Iraq (RIP IRAQ) could be a relatively benign endgame
for the war-torn country. Unfortunately, whether it comes to that or not, Rest
and Peace are clearly not in the cards for Iraq.
