"My Country Needs More Help From the U.S."

“MY COUNTRY NEEDS MORE HELP FROM THE U.S.”

Iraq cracking and Al Abadi struggling.

This is the title of an article by Iraq’s Premier Haider Al-Abadi, recently published in the “Washington Post” (Iraqi prime minister: My country needs more help from the U.S. at https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/iraqi-prime-minister-my-country-needs-more-help-from-the-us/2017/03/23/3fff51a0-0fdb-11e7-ab07-07d9f521f6b5_story.html?utm_term=.b1abe6cd61ab&wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1 ). Naturally, Abadi makes his bid commending Iraq and her armed forces and cajoling the US for support and financing. We should not, however, take his every word at face value. Let’s check:

Iraqis standing together against the cruelest killers on Earth.

(…) build an Iraq worthy of what we are: a pluralist people, steeped in history, striving to build one nation in peace and mutual respect.

We must reconcile our society across sectarian and ethnic lines.

(…) preserving our sovereignty and ensuring that no neighbor exercises outsize influence within our country.

The part about “Iraqis standing together” is really questionable and the same goes for “mutual respect”. Reconciling sects and ethnicities is almost a utopia and sovereignty preservation is denied by the facts on the ground and by the Premier’s own plea for full US engagement.

We see the Yazidis, formerly persecuted and killed by the Islamic States (IS) now being persecuted and killed by the Kurdish Regional Government’s (KRG) peshmerga.

We see the increasingly autocratic and thuggish KRG trying to take control of disputed territories and to get a foothold on traditional Sunni land, such as Mosul.

We see the blood-thirsty Shiite militias always angling for retribution killings of Sunni civilians.

We see the Iraqi government in Baghdad at loggerheads with the regional government in Arbil which, in turn, is increasingly beholden to Turkey.

And we do not see, at least not yet, the Sunnis fully embracing the hedonistic new order proclaimed by Abadi.

What I do see in a post-Mosul Iraq is:

            * Turkey and Iran vying for influence, power and presence in Northern Iraq.

* An increasingly Ankara-dependent Kurdistan Regional Government fighting Iraq’s central government.

* A multi-faceted Shia political and security establishment striving to keep and apportion power and perks.

* A creepy Al Maliki lurking and planning a comeback.

And, facing this scenario and looking at precedent, I regard a full-fledged Sunni integration into the political, security and economic mainstream with deep skepticism.

O ye of little faith, I might say to myself.

P.S. All of Abadi’s writing, focus on a single ultimate goal: to present an appealing way forward for Iraq in order to ask Americans to assist us as we restore our infrastructure and diversity and partially privatize our economy. We need U.S. investment to rebuild our housing, hospitals, schools, sanitation facilities, roads, highways and bridges. We can also benefit from Americans’ technical expertise as we improve and expand our telecommunications, information technology and health-care sectors. Iraq needs U.S. financiers and corporate partners to help us develop agriculture, petrochemicals and other industries.

So, he wants Washington to pay for Iraq’s reconstruction across the board, far exceeding the scope of Donald Trump’s infrastructure investments for his own country. Asking Trump to splurge money in Iraq, where the main players range from skeptical to outright hostile towards America is a very, very long shot indeed.

RIP Iraq

RIP IRAQ

“RIP IRAQ”

Desenho original de Afonso Duarte

Like her Syrian neighbour, Iraq has been unravelling. The main differences are that this has been happening in Iraq for more time and the fighting has been less widespread and not as deadly as in Syria.

In Iraq, the main sectarian/ethnic distinctions are three-fold: Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. The former constitute the majority group (around 60% of the population) and govern Iraq. However, they are split between the central government headed by Prime-Minister Haider Al-Abadi and a score of powerful Shiite militias with considerable manpower and military capabilities and whose allegiances sway between Baghdad and Tehran, but they are mostly armed, financed and even directed by Iran, specifically by the IRGC’s Quds Force.

The Sunnis, by and large, feel (and actually are) disenfranchised by the Shiite powers that be. This reality is a consequence of the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, but was severely deepened after the 2011 departure of the US troops from Iraq and the increasingly sectarian policies of former Prime-Minister Nouri Al-Maliki until the Summer of 2014.

The Islamic State (IS) has been the main vehicle of Sunni revolt against the statu quo. The string of stunning military victories by the IS, culminating in the June 2014 conquest of Mosul and the subsequent proclamation of the Islamic Caliphate, were the strongest drivers of the popularity and support the IS garnered in Iraq, Syria, the Middle East and beyond.

In this period, the Islamic State has managed to carve a proto-state out of most of Western Iraq and Eastern Syria (check the 13^th June 2014 post “Estado Islâmico do Iraque Ocidental e Síria Oriental” - Islamic State of Western Iraq and Eastern Syria at http://tempos-interessantes.blogspot.pt/2014/06/estado-islamico-do-iraque-ocidental-e.html  ) and she has proved difficult to dislodge in spite of the erosion the war has caused on her.

However, the anti-IS offensive has mostly been spearheaded by the US Air Force, the Shiite militias and the Kurdish Peshmerga, in short, a coalition of anti-Iraqi Sunni forces: USA, Iran and Kurds. It is quite reasonable to assume that, when and if the Islamic State is militarily beaten, Iraq’s Sunnis will not come out in droves to celebrate and much less to greet the liberators. Most likely, unless there are great political changes in Baghdad (which is unlikely), Sunni unrest will endure and the IS will morph into some other entity which will pick up the fight in a few years-time.

The Islamic State and the Kurdistan Regional Government: mutual foes and both opponents of Baghdad.

in STRATFOR at www.stratfor.com

Finally, the Kurds run their own proto-state, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). In spite of being an authoritarian, corrupt, bankrupt and nepotistic entity, it has enjoyed the favours of the Western powers, namely the UK and the US and that of Turkey as well. The most outstanding example of the West’s leniency is London’s and Washington’s support for Masoud Barzani’s indefinite permanence as president of the KRG fully two years after the end of his term.

Besides, the KRG has been actively asserting its claim to independence and sovereignty, exporting oil through Turkey circumventing the Iraqi state and occupying the city of Kirkuk and the surrounding oil fields. One can say that, in a twisted way, the KRG has benefited from the Islamic State surge and expansion.

Even when the IS emergency eventually fades away, it is clear that the KRG will continue to pursue full independence and it will not easily and willingly relinquish the prerogatives an territories it has already appropriated for itself.

To top it all, the Iraqi government is weak, divided and ineffective, unable to face and defeat the Islamic State, or to bring the KRG back under control, or even to rein in on the Iranian-backed militias, on whose fighting power it ultimately depends on.

So, the ingredients for state failure are all there:

            * Religious and ethnic hatred.

* Government’s impotence to control and protect much of Iraq’s territory and population.

* Government’s impotence to effectively fight and subdue or destroy the rebellious entities of IS and KRG.

* Government’s dependence on militias largely dependent on and answering to Iran.

* Government’s dependency on foreign powers (Iran and the US) to survive the

Islamic State’s assault.

This is a recipe for disaster, for the implosion and partition of a country that effectively does not function as such anymore.

Like in Syria, Rest in Peace Iraq (RIP IRAQ) could be a relatively benign endgame for the war-torn country. Unfortunately, whether it comes to that or not, Rest and Peace are clearly not in the cards for Iraq.