TERMINATED
Qassem Suleimani: targeted and
terminated.
On the 3rd January, the United States targeted the commander
of the Iranian Republican Guards Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force, General Qassem
Suleimani as he and his entourage left the Baghdad airport. The missiles,
launched from armed drones, killed Suleimani and his escort and, as a sort of a
bonus, it also killed Abu Mahdi al- Muhandas, the leader of Ketaib Hezbollah,
one of the most prominent Shia militias sponsored by Iran.
The tension that was palpable since the attack on the American embassy
in Iraq and the rocket attack by Ketaib Hezbollah on the American military base
K-1, raised to new levels after the Suleimani strike, but after the lame rocket
attack retribution performed by the IRGC, it quickly dwindled.
However, very typically of the 21 Century media and analysts, there was
an apocalyptical outburst of hell breaking lose all over the Middle East and an
impending catastrophe looming over the United States military. There is, of
course, more than the recurring fear and shock syndrome. There is no doubt that
if the killing had been approved by the previous President, the same people
would be striving for the best accolade possible. Since it is Mr. Trump, we
have to read the Iran could do this and Iran could do that mantra. *
It is of course likely that Iran may try to execute some retaliation
strikes, directly or through their multiple proxies, but it is very unlikely
that these moves would entail some catastrophic dimension. And if it did, the
American retaliation would be undoubtedly brutal.
Qassem Suleimani before the deed.
Qassem Suleimani after the deed.
So, back to the point, the termination of Qassem Suleimani erased the
most dangerous and deadly person in the entire Middle East and Iran’s most
important military asset, who spread mayhem all over the region (Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Yemen) and farther afield, as far-off as Argentina.
He was also the mentor, strategist and executor of a successful plan to
enable Iran’s outreach, thus leaving the isolation of the post-revolutionary
period. He did so with the blessing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, the military skills of the Quds Force he led and the regimentation of
a pack of militias, mostly Shia-affiliated, trained and financed by Teheran and
who responded to him. These tentacles stretched to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza,
Yemen, Afghanistan, at least.
So, there is no mitigating the value
of the strike for the United States and for countless people across the Middle
East who cheered his elimination, as there is no mitigation as to the blow
suffered by Iran.
* To complement
what was written in the post, I reproduce excerpts from the writing of a couple
of seemingly sore analysts:
We have now entered open season for Iranian attacks on
American troops, diplomats and ordinary citizens, likely for months to
come. The US position in Iraq may become untenable, as Iran may make it
the central battleground in its asymmetrical campaign against the US.
But as the
dust settles, the collateral damage from the strike on Qassem Suleimani will
likely be greater than the Trump administration bargained for. Indeed, the
strike already appears to be feeding the gnarled ambitions of Iran’s supreme
leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, by producing a more unified regime with a tighter
grip at home; an even more precarious American military position in Iraq and
Syria, with the Iraqi parliament now calling for U.S. withdrawal; and the
death of the Iranian nuclear deal and the whole notion of diplomacy with the
Great Satan. All of this would cost the United States far more than Suleimani’s
assassination cost Iran. In his death, Suleimani may exact his own final act
of revenge against the United States.
The Iranians could eventually stage further attacks on
Saudi oil facilities or Gulf shipping … America is stumbling
into a tragedy of its own making. And the Iranian regime is poised to once
again reap the rewards, turning Soleimani’s loss into a long-term gain.
Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace
“Where’s the Strategy?” – Aaron David Miller
“Soleimani’s Ultimate Revenge” – William Burns and Jake Sullivan https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/06/soleimani-s-ultimate-revenge-pub-80699
Two months have passed and nothing else happened. Many things may yet occur,
but so far, no sign of the catastrophic events that these two analysts so
eagerly forecasted. Actually, I think it is ridiculous to say that the Iranians
can easily go on a shooting spree of Americans. Concerning the American
presence in Iraq, it must be said this deployment is much more important for
Baghdad than for Washington. So much so, that the Iraqi parliament never
mentioned an American troop withdrawal again.
The second analyst draws plans of what mischief Iran could create, as if it
was possible for her to get a free pass to wreak havoc in the Persian
Gulf. As for the pathetic assertion of
Suleimani post-mortem revenge, he is so very wrong: the avenger was avenged and
Suleimani was terminated and left the stage. Period.
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