17 março, 2020

"We’ve Got to Get In to Get Out"


“WE’VE GOT TO GET IN TO GET OUT”


Map showing 6 of the 8 US military bases in Iraq.

Yesterday, the Pentagon announced the US Army withdrawal from 3 of the 8 US military bases in Iraq. There are three fundamental reasons for enacting this decision>

1- The US need to maintain a significant military footprint in Iraq has been gradually diminishing since the 2017 Islamic State (IS) collapse.* The IS has not been terminated, but its ability to  wreak havoc across the Middle East has been quashed in the short/medium term.
2- The increasing hostility and threats to the American military presence, substantiated by missile and rocket attacks by Iran and her Iraqi minions. The American casualties have been diminutive, but sooner or later they will be very damaging. Once it gets to that, the United States­ retaliation would have to be devastating, thus opening the way for a full scale war.
3- President Donald Trump has consistently and strongly advocated for a reduced American military footprint in the Middle East and beyond, especially in conflict theatres. The withdrawal from Syria started in 2019 and the one from Afghanistan is starting to roll. Iraq is the remaining goal.
Of course, there will be those, namely in Iran and Iraq, who will gloat that they kicked the US out of Iraq. I do not subscribe to that point of view<. Although there are several variables, the main issue is that the United States wants to get out and it is important for Trump to be able to show significant reductions in troop deployments overseas. And the reason lies more in Washington than in Baghdad or Tehran.
The United States has got into the Middle East in 2003 and got out in 2011, only to get back in in 2014. As the Genesis famously put in “Carpet Crawlers”, “We’ve got to get in to get out”! **


* The actual state, not the militant organisation.
** As a bonus to our readers, here’s the “Carpet Crawlers”:

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