Middle East is a-Changing

 MIDDLE EAST IS A-CHANGING

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Middle East back in the 1960’s.

in “The Map Archive” at https://www.themaparchive.com/product/the-middle-east-c-1960/

Back in the day, the Middle East could be divided into the following groupings: the conservative Arab states aligned with the Western nations, a.k.a. the United States, the United Kingdom and France, consisting of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States Jordan and Morocco; the radical and pro-Soviet Arab states, such as Egypt, Syria, Iraq, South Yemen, Libya, Algeria; the pro-America Persia; and the no-friends Israel.

Of course, there have been many changes along the years: Egypt switched sides back in the 1970’s; Persia turned Iran, turned America-hater; South Yemen ceased to be (and it is seeking resurrection nowadays), etc.

However, one thing remained mostly unchanged: the hostility/hatred towards Israel, mostly on account of the Palestinian issue, but is some cases also due to anti-Semitism with genocidal flavours. There were, of course, positive evolutions, namely the diplomatic recognition of Israel by Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994).

Then, in the last decade, the chill between Israel and the above-mentioned “pro-Western” group started warming, melting. Covertly, discreetly, smoothly, this state of affairs was clearly moving and improving until 2020.

In 2020, culminating a couple of years of diplomacy, coaching and incentives on the part of the Trump Administration, plus the increasing Sunni-Shia hostility and the Iranian threat, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain also established diplomatic relations with Israel.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia acquiesced to her allies’ decision, which augurs a similar step being taken by Riyadh in the near future. Furthermore, Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, Sudan’s General Abdel Fattah al Bashir and Morocco’s King Mohammed VI, seem to be equally keen on joining this group. I would also add Kuwait as a prospective candidate.

Another remarkable twist that enabled these developments was Palestine’s apparent loss of power and influence, well patent in the UAE’s and Bahrain’s dismissal of her protests and objections, as well as, the defeat of Mahmoud Abbas’ proposed resolution to condemn the UAE decision at an Arab League meeting. These events showed that the Palestinians no longer hold a veto power over Arab-Israeli issues.

So, the Middle East is gradually but surely evolving towards two antagonistic groups. One would be that of the Sunni states, mostly monarchies, plus Israel, which would count on the United States’ military-security umbrella. The other would be a mostly Shiite group, headed and controlled by Iran who will strive to draw the likes of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and, maybe, the Palestine, even though it is mostly Sunni. The latter group will expect to benefit from the support of Russia and China.

Although this development will not at all guarantee peace for the Middle East, Donald Trump’s accomplishment opened a very rare window to a prosperous, cooperative and peaceful region, at the same time that it makes an Israeli-Arab conflict and even more distant prospect. That, in itself, may prove to be a major accomplishment, probably the most outstanding one so far in the 21^st Century.

 

* The inspiration for the title given to this post, “The Middle East is a-Changing”, is due not only to the actual reality on the ground, but a throwback to the 1960’s changes and Bob Dylan’s iconic song “The Times, They are A-Changing”.

 

As a gift to my readers, here’s the link to the song:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7qQ6_RV4VQ