BREXIT OR BRITIN?
BREXIT OR BRITIN?
This year will be marked by the British referendum on the United
Kingdom’s staying in or leaving the European Union (EU). It is difficult to
overstate the importance of a vote that will determine the fate of the 2nd
largest country in the EU and whether or not the EU will see its membership
diminish for the first time ever.
Two things are evident: the majority of the British establishment
supports the “In” vote and the other 27 member states also want the UK to stay.
However, it is for neither of these groups to decide the outcome of the
referendum. That will be for the British citizenry to decide, and they clearly
have not made up their minds yet.
The “Stay” (or Britin) side,
which is led by David Cameron and is also supported by Labour, the Liberals and
the main Welsh and Scottish parties, will hail the agreement reached this month
by Cameron in Brussels as guaranteeing enough concessions and changes as to
reforming the EU to a certain extent and assuring a special status for the UK
in the EU.
Amongst the former, there is the increase in competitiveness, the red
tape cutting (both staple promises seldom fulfilled), the protection of the
rights and interests of non-euro countries and
the red card, the supposedly veto power given to national parliaments
over EU legislation. As for the latter, the Stayers
will point to the exemption London guaranteed concerning the elusive “ever
closer union” mantra and concessions on welfare payments to immigrants.
On the other hand, the “Leave” (or Brexit)
camp, will stress the harm of Brussels’ smothering bureaucracy and its encroaching
on British independence and sovereignty. Furthermore, they will present Mr
Cameron’s deal with the other 27 states as nothing short of insignificant,
noting that there is no real “sovereignty devolution” to Westminster. The Leavers will naturally be led by
London’s Mayor and Conservative M.P. Boris Johnson, other Conservative
heavyweights like Justice Secretary Michael Gove and, of course, the UKIP led
by Nigel Farage and Douglas Carswell.
David Cameron’s gamble: will it
pay off?
The Britin camp will be
favoured by the electorates’ tendency to vote conservatively in a referendum,
i.e., choosing the supposedly safer option, the known one as opposed to the
unknown. Their strategy will also be very much based on fearmongering about the
mortal dangers involved in exiting
the EU. Connected to this is the idea that the UK will stand to lose a lot
economically if she leaves. Finally, they will be led by a Prime Minister who
has recently been re-elected with an outstanding victory at the polls.
The Brexit camp will benefit
by the agreement’s obvious shortcomings:
there is no real reform of the EU, there is no real downsizing of the Brussels
bureaucratic monster’s power and dimension, there is no real significant
sovereignty devolution to London (no repatriation of EU social and
employment laws, for instance) and there is no discernible contagion to other
member states who seemingly are done with the EU’s overreach. Brexit will have the an and of counting
with the support of most of the press which is strongly anti-EU. Finally, they
will be counting on the natural aversion to the EU, a feeling which seems to be
ingrained in a large part of the population.
In the end, the UK did extract some concessions in the deal and Britin will be able to extoll its
benefits pointing that it would be difficult to have gone farther. This may be
true, but it is really not a good deal:
it was designed to attain the minimum standards so that Cameron could uphold it
in the campaign trail and to prove that the 27 made a real effort to keep Great
Britain in the fold.
That, however, falls very short
of the goal of EU reform and sovereignty devolution. For that, Mr. Cameron
would have to drive a much harder bargain, to spend much more time, diplomatic
effort and cajoling and political capital, especially to engage with countries
that might be more receptive to contain and reverse the EU’s overstretch.
Mr.
Cameron chose instead to wrap up a deal as soon as possible for electoral
expediency, convinced that the later the referendum were held, the worse his
prospects would be. But his haste has weakened his case, opening his flank to
corrosive attacks from Brexit.
By
the Summer solstice we shall know if Mr. Cameron’s gambit paid off, or if both
the United Kingdom and himself will be out.
